1 May 2022

Fed policy-meeting outcome & Global cues will guide Sensex & Nifty

Fed is expected to hike rates by 50bps during its May policy-meeting and US markets witnessed worst sell-off since 2008 in the month of April 2022. Negative global cues likely to spurt volatility.

author dp
Team INRBonds
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Sensex & Nifty closed 1.3% down from Friday�s high amid negative global cues. Eurozone reported highest inflation reading, US GDP growth contracted by 1.1%, expectation of Fed hiking rates by 50bps and crude oil trading above USD 100 per barrel spooked investors. Domestic Q4 earnings show margin erosion and bleak outlook due to high raw material costs. Choppy trends are likely to continue, and volatility levels would spike in the coming week.

GST collection has crossed the Rs. 1.5 trillion mark for the first time in April 2022 and the Rs 1 trillion for the 10th month in a row. GST collections for the month of April 2022 stood at Rs. 1.68 trillion.

In the coming week, investors will watch out for US job data and Fed monetary policy-meeting outcome. Domestic investors will watch out for earnings Havells, Dabur, TVS Motors, Tata power and Federal Bank.

Equity Market Summary:

       In domestic markets FIIs/FPIs sold Rs.411 billion in March 2022 and sold Rs. 171 billion in April 2022.

       US indices witnessed sharp sell off on Friday amid higher PCE reading and lower than expected GDP growth rate dented market sentiment.

       US economy contracted at an annualized 1.4% in Q1, well below market forecasts of a 1.1% expansion and following a 6.9% growth in Q4 2021.

       European stocks finished the last trading day of April on a positive note despite inflation touching record highs.

       Japan's Industrial production rose 0.3% MoM in March 2022, slowing from a 2% gain in the previous month and falling short of the 0.5% growth forecast.

       China General Manufacturing PMI fell to a 26-month low of 46 levels in April 2022 from March's reading of 48.1 levels, below market forecasts of 47 levels.

       The personal consumption expenditure price index in the US climbed 6.6% YoY in March 2022.

       Eurozone economy expanded by 0.2% on quarter in the first three months of 2022.

       The annual inflation rate in the Euro Area rose to a fresh record high of 7.5% in April 2022 from 7.4% in March 2022.

Equity Indices

29-04-2022

22-04-2022

% Change week on week

Indian Indices

-

-

-

Nifty

17102

17171

-0.40%

Sensex

57060

57197

-0.24%

CNX Midcap

29880

30315

-1.43%

Bank Nifty

36088

36044

0.12%

CNX Infra

5127

5197

-1.35%

CNX IT

31622

32426

-2.48%

Derivatives Nifty Near month

17133

17166

-0.19%

Spread over underlying

31

-5

-720.00%

Implied Volatility Put

20.83%

18.16%

14.70%

Implied Volatility Call

15.86%

14.98%

5.87%

Global Market indices

-

-

-

Nikkei 225

26847

27105

-0.95%

Hong Kong Hangseng

21089

20638

2.19%

China Shanghai Composite

3047

3086

-1.26%

Korea Kospi

2695

2704

-0.33%

German DAX

14098

14142

-0.31%

UK FTSE

7544

7521

0.31%

Dow Jones Industrial

32977

33811

-2.47%

Nasdaq

12334

12839

-3.93%

Currency Market

-

-

-

USD/INR Rs

76.52

76.46

0.08%

EUR/USD USD

1.0543

1.0794

-2.33%

USD/JPY JPY

129.85

128.57

1.00%

USD Index DXY

103.21

101.12

2.07%

Commodities Market

-

-

-

Brent Crude Oil (USD/Barrel)

107.14

106.5

0.60%

Gold (USD/ Oz)

1912

1931

-0.98%