25 Sept 2022

Weak global cues and monthly F&O expiry would spurt volatility

Sensex & Nifty would witness rise in volatility amid negative global cues and sharp fall in USDINR (which will force RBI to hike interest rates sharply). However, sharp decline in oil prices is something to cheer for.

author dp
Team INRBonds
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�Sensex & Nifty declined sharply on Friday tracking global cues. Global equity market sentiment turned very volatile after Fed�s policy-meeting outcome as the policy makers states that rate hike cycle will likely to continue and pace of rate hikes could go higher than 75 bps if required. Strengthening of USD has caused ripple effect across the emerging market currencies, USDINR pair touched new lows and to stem further losses RBI would have to raise interest rates sharply.

In the coming week, US GDP growth data and Eurozone inflation preliminary estimates will be in focus. Domestic investors will watch out for RBI policy-meeting, market expectations are 50bps rate hike.

Equity Market Summary:

o   Wallstreet indices declined sharply on Friday as the sell-off intensified. Dow Jones touched 2-year lows and market sentiment remains bearish now.

o   Fed hiked interest rates by 75bps for the 3rd time this year taking the interest rates to levels seen in 2008. Markets are expecting 125bps rate hike during the year and in 2023 interest rates are likely to be at 4.25% as per futures data show.

o   S&P Global US Services PMI rose to 49.2 levels in September 2022 from 43.7 levels in the previous month.

o   European indices touched 2-year low tracking global cues. On macro-data front, Eurozone PMI contracted for 3rd consecutive month.

o   Euro Area recorded a current account gap of Euro 10.1 billion in July 2022, compared to a Euro 36.8 billion surplus a year earlier.

o   Bank of England raised its key interest rate by 50bps to 2.25% during its September 2022 policy- meeting, the 7th consecutive rate hike, and pushing borrowing costs to the highest since 2008.

o   Brent crude oil prices declined sharply during the week as demand for oil is expected to slowdown due to recession fears spark.

o   Japan�s core consumer price index in Japan, which excludes fresh food but includes fuel costs, jumped 2.8% in August 2022 from a year ago, topping expectations for a 2.7% rise and accelerating from a 2.4% gain in July 2022.