12 Sept 2021

USD higher after hawkish Fed comments-Weekly Currency Analysis

USD posted a weekly gain as market participants reassessed the likelihood of the Federal Reserve tapering bond purchases this year. INR ended lower last week in risk-off trade with worries of slowing growth creep in.

author dp
Team INRBonds
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US Inflation worries persist despite weak labour market

USD posted a weekly gain as market participants reassess the likelihood of the Federal Reserve tapering bond purchases this year. USD came under pressure earlier after jobs data for August showed that jobs growth slowed, while wage inflation rose more than expected.

However, many Fed officials last week said that a slowdown in job growth wouldn't necessarily throw the central bank's plan to cut asset purchases this year off track, even after the August job data report fell well short of expectations.

Further, the data on Friday showed that U.S. producer prices increased solidly in August, indicating that high inflation is likely to persist for a while, with supply chains remaining tight as the COVID-19 pandemic drags on, driving UST 10yr yield higher.

On Friday, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester reiterated her stance from late August that she would like tapering to begin this year.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank maintained a dovish tone and offered no major surprises but indicated that it would trim emergency bond purchases over the coming quarter.

INR fell on risk off trade

INR ended lower last week in risk-off trade as worries of slowing growth crept in after Goldman Sachs cut its US GDP outlook for the second time in a month following the weaker than forecast US jobs report on Friday

However, the expectation of steady retail inflation has given some support to INR. The inflation in August is likely to remain within the Reserve Bank of India’s comfort zone for a second straight month.

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