28 Feb 2022

Why GOI Floating Rate Bond Prices have fallen despite rising yields

GOI FRBs should ideally perform well when interest rates are rising but the prices have actually fallen over the last one year. This is due to the absolute yields staying very low as RBI has kept rates low and is continuing its accommodative policy.

author dp
Team INRBonds
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GOI FRB

The issuance of floating rate bonds (FRBs) by the Government of India was started in FY 02. The interest rate payable on a half-yearly basis on FRBs is linked to the variable base rate calculated as the weighted average rate of the implicit yield at cut-off prices of the specified number of auctions of Government of India 182-day T-Bills held up to the commencement of the half-yearly fixation/ reset of coupon date which is known as base rate and a pre-determined spread.

Valuation of floating rate bonds

Ø  Valuation of floating rate bond are made considering only the current floating rate which is re-set at pre-announced intervals (generally in every 6 month).

Ø  Forwards rate which is implicit from term structure from zero coupon bond yield can be used for valuation of FRBs.

 

 

Price change of FRB 2033

Date

Price

01-Jan-21

100.56

24-Feb-22

99.26

Price fall

-1.29%

 

Auction of GOI FRB 2033 during FY22

Date

Cut-off yield

Price

13-Aug-2021

4.58

101.05

30-Jul-2021

4.74

100.32

16-Jul-2021

4.85

100.02

02-Jul-2021

4.92

99.90

18-Jun-2021

4.92

99.36

03-Jun-2021

4.89

99.16

21-May-2021

4.88

98.98

07-May-2021

4.87

98.50

23-Apr-2021

4.93

98.40

09-Apr-2021

4.86

98.50

 

Coupon Rate of FRB 2033 announced in FY22

Date

Coupon Rate

Average 182 T-Bill auction yield

19-Mar-21

4.70%

3.48%

21-Sep-21

4.62%

3.40%

 

Outstanding GOI Floating rate Bonds (as of 8th Feb 2022)

GOI Floating Rate Bonds

Maturity

Outstanding amount (Rs billion)

FRB 2024

07-Nov-24

896.35

FRB 2028

04-Oct-28

248.16

FRB 2031

07-Dec-31

1399.15

FRB 2033

22-Sep-33

1494.81

FRB 2034

30-Oct-34

428.00

FRB 2035

25-Jan-35

3.50

Total

4469.97

 

Floating Rate Debt Fund Returns (%)

1-month

3-month

1-year

3-year

5-year

10-year

0.27

0.57

4.17

6.64

6.72

7.68

Source: value research online

Government bonds, SDL and OIS yield movements

 

Last week, 6.54% 2032 paper yield rose by 9 bps to 6.75% while 6.10% 2031 yield increased by 7 bps to 6.77%. On the other hand, 5-year benchmark bond, 5.63% 2026 yield rose by 13 bps to 5.94%. 6.64% 2035 yield gained 3 bps to 7.02%. Long-term paper, 7.16% 2050 yield rose by 2 bps to 7.10%.

 

The spread of 10-year bond over 5-year bond fell to 83 bps from 89 bps in previous week. The 15-year benchmark over 10-year benchmark spread declined to 22 bps from 26 bps while 30-year benchmark over 10-year benchmark spread decreased to 32 bps from 38 bps on weekly basis.

 

Average 10-year SDL auction cut-off rose to 7.12% from 7.09% in previous week while spread declined to 34 bps from 39 bps.

 

On weekly basis, 1-year OIS yield rose by 4 bps 4.30% while 5-year OIS yield increased by 6 bps to 5.76%.

 

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