11 Jul 2022

INR to fall sharply if RBI goes slow on rate hikes

INR is trading at record lows and RBI governor Shaktikanta Das is underplaying inflation fears and is confident inflation will come off from October 2022. Given this, RBI rate hikes may be much slower than Fed or ECB and this could pull down the INR sharply.

author dp
Team INRBonds
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  • US trade deficit narrowed by $1.1 billion to a five-month low of $85.5 billion in May of 2022.
  • US unemployment rate stood at 3.6% in June.
  • Retail Sales in the Euro Area increased 0.2% year-on-year in May of 2022, the smallest annual gain since February of 2021, as rising consumer prices weigh on consumers' affordability.
  • China’s inflation rate stood at 2.5% in June 2022.
  • Rupee depreciated by 0.31% against USD.
  • Japanese Yen depreciated by 0.67% against USD.
  • Dollar Index rose by 1.48%.

Currencies

08-Jul-22

01-Jul-22

Weekly Return

DXY

106.69

105.138

1.48%

AMERICAS CURRENCIES

 

 

 

USD-BRL

5.256

5.3327

1.46%

EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA CURRENCIES

 

 

 

EUR-USD

1.0187

1.0414

-2.18%

GBP-USD

1.2033

1.2095

-0.51%

USD-RUB

60.92

55.8

-8.40%

ASIA-PACIFIC CURRENCIES

 

 

 

AUD-USD

0.6859

0.6814

0.66%

NZD-USD

0.6186

0.6814

-9.22%

USD-JPY

136.12

135.21

-0.67%

EUR-JPY

138.6

140.99

1.72%

USD-KRW

1,294.80

1,297.15

0.18%

USD-PHP

55.83

55.08

-1.34%

USD-IDR

14,977.00

14,942.50

-0.23%

USD-INR

79.29

79.04

-0.31%

EUR-INR

80.7725

82.6667

2.35%

USD-CNY

6.70

6.70

0.07%

USD-MYR

4.43

4.41

-0.44%

USD-THB

35.91

35.58

-0.92%

Countries

08-Jul-22

01-Jul-22

Weekly Change (bps)

US

3.08%

2.89%

19

Japan

0.24%

0.21%

3

UK

2.24%

2.11%

13

Germany

1.33%

1.23%

10

Portugal

2.40%

2.29%

11

Italy

3.37%

3.20%

17

France

1.88%

1.80%

8

Greece

3.64%

3.49%

15

Spain

2.41%

2.28%

13

Brazil

13.18%

13.00%

18

Russia

9.13%

9.09%

4

China

2.86%

2.84%

2

South Africa

10.63%

10.43%

20

Australia

3.55%

3.47%

8

India

7.41%

7.42%

-1

Indonesia

7.37%

7.35%

2

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