16 Jan 2023

Fall in inflation may improve fiscal deficit target set by Union Government for FY23

During Dec 22, consumer inflation continued down trend from previous month. Tax collection increased during Apr-Nov 22 as compared to previous fiscal year. Rise in tax collection and fall in inflation are likely to help the Union Government to achieve the fiscal deficit target of 6.4% of GDP for FY23. As the impact of the pandemic has been mitigated, the Government of India is likely to seek fiscal consolidation from here.

author dp
Team INRBonds
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India’s fiscal deficit stood at 59% of budget estimate during Apr-Nov 2022 as compared to 46% during corresponding period in previous fiscal year. In absolute terms, the fiscal deficit stood at Rs 9.78 trillion. For the current fiscal year, The government has budgeted a fiscal deficit to be 6.4% of the GDP.

During  Apr-Nov 22, net tax revenue came in at Rs 12.24 trillion which is 63.3% of BE FY23. Non-tax revenue was at Rs 1.98 trillion or 73.5% of BE. So far net tax direct collection rose by 24.26% on a yearly basis.

Domestic advance tax collections during Apr-Dec FY2022-23 stood at Rs 5.21 trillion against advance tax collection of Rs 4.62 trillion for the corresponding period of the FY 2022, showing growth of 12.83%.

India’s nominal GDP growth rate has been estimated to be at 11.1% as per Union Budget FY23.

India Consumer inflation -Domestic inflation mitigated to 5.72% in Dec 22 from 5.88% in previous month. During the month, food inflation stood at 4.19% while core inflation came at 6.1%.

Government bonds, SDL and OIS yield movements

10-year benchmark 7.26% 2032 yield declined by 7 bps to 7.30% while 6.54% 2032 yield decreased by 8 bps to 7.32%. The 5-year benchmark bond, 7.38% 2027 yield decreased by 15 bps to 7.13%. 3-year benchmark 5.22% 2025 yield decreased by 17 bp to 6.87%. Long-term paper, 7.40% 2062 yield decreased by 9 bps to 7.37%.

The spread of 10-year bond over 5-year bond declined to 17 bps from 8 bps as compared to the previous week. The 15-year benchmark over 10-year benchmark spread decreased to 7 bps from 8 bps while the 30-year benchmark over 10-year benchmark spread stood unchanged at 7 bps on a weekly basis.

Average 10-year SDL auction cut-off rose to 7.63% from 7.62% in previous week while spread stood unchanged at 31 bps.

On a weekly basis, 1-year OIS yield declined by 13 bps to 6.60% while the 5-year OIS yield decreased by 22 bps to 6.21%.

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