23 Jan 2023

USD slips lower as recession fears mount

USD continues to hover around 7-month lows amid rising worries of an economic slowdown in the US and expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of interest rate hikes in the coming meetings.

author dp
Team INRBonds
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  • USD continues to hover around 7-month lows amid rising worries of an economic slowdown in the US and expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of interest rate hikes in the coming meetings.
  • Data this week from the US has pointed to the world’s largest economy slowing. Retail sales fell by more than expected, and manufacturing output also declined.
  • Retail sales dropped by 1.1% month on month in December, marking the largest decline in over a year. November retail sales but also revised lower.
  • U.S. manufacturing production is down by 1.3% in December.
  • Federal Reserve officials are still sounding hawkish. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said that inflation was still too high. She insisted that interest rates must stay high even though there are signs that inflation is starting to cool.
  • INR is capitalizing on a weaker USD, advancing despite weak risk sentiment across the financial markets.
  • Falling oil prices are offering support to INR. West Texas Intermediate has fallen 1% on recession fears and after industry stockpile data revealed that inventories unexpectedly jumped.

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