22 Jan 2024

USD gains amid strong economic indicators

The USD strengthened for a second week amid expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, supported by robust U.S. retail sales and low jobless claims. Despite rising inflation, Fed officials hinted at cautious measures. INR weakened but remained supported as India's monetary policy aims for disinflation despite rising retail inflation.

author dp
Team INRBonds
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         The USD ended the week higher for the second consecutive week, largely on renewed expectations of early rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

         U.S. retail sales came in stronger than expected earlier in the week, highlighting the resilience of the U.S. economy, rising 0.6% month on month, ahead of the 0.4% expectation.

         U.S. initial jobless claims for unemployment benefits dropped 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 187,000 for the week ended Jan. 13, the lowest level since September 2022, as reported by the Labor Department on Thursday.

         Fed officials, including Governor Christopher Waller this week, have pushed back against expectations of an aggressive round of rate cuts, suggesting the speed and timing will be slower than market participants had initially priced in.

         Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said on Thursday that he was open to reducing U.S. interest rates sooner than the third quarter he had anticipated if there was "convincing" evidence in the coming months that inflation is falling faster than he expected.

         US inflation ticks higher to 3.8%, up from 3.2%. The accelerating inflation failed to spark concern in the market.

         INR ended the week lower against the USD but remained supported after Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das said at the World Economic Forum in Davos that Indian monetary policy should remain disinflationary despite a sharp fall in core inflation.

         India�s retail inflation surged to 5.69% in December 2023 from 5.55% in November 2023.

         Core inflation has declined to a 48-month low of 3.89% in December 2023.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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