29 Jan 2024

Gross Centre plus state borrowing may stand between Rs 22 to 23 trillion in interim budget 2024-25

For FY25, it is expected that the domestic fiscal deficit will be budgeted at 5.5% of GDP. Gross market borrowing is expected to stand at around Rs 15 trillion while including SDL borrowing, it is likely to be in the range between Rs 22 to 23 trillion.

author dp
Team INRBonds
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Possible pattern of fiscal deficit funding during FY25

Sources

% of fiscal deficit

Market Borrowings (G-sec +T Bill)

65%-70%

NSSF

15%-20%

State Provident Funds

2%-2.5%

External Debt

0.5%-0.6%

Other sources

5%-7%

During the current fiscal year, the government had raised about Rs 14.08 trillion, or about 91% of the FY24 gross market borrowing target.As per Union Budget 2023-24, Gross market borrowing to stand at Rs 15.45 trillion while net market borrowing estimated at Rs 12.3 trillion for FY24. The Union Government has pegged the domestic fiscal deficit at 5.9% of GDP for FY24.

Government bonds, SDL and OIS yield movements

During the past week, there were several notable changes in bond yields:

The yield for the 10-year benchmark 7.18% 2033 bond yield stood flat at 7.17%. The 7.06% 2028 bond's yield came down by 1 basis point to 7.05%. 7.18% 2037 bond yield stood unchanged at 7.27%. The long-term paper, represented by the 7.25% 2063 bond, its yield decreased by 5 bps to 7.33%.

The spread between the 10-year and 5-year bonds declined to 12 bps from 12 basis points as compared to the previous week. The spread between the 15-year benchmark and the 10-year benchmark increased to 10 bps from 9 bps. Additionally, the spread between the 30-year benchmark and the 10-year benchmark declined to 16 bps from 20 bps as compared to the previous week.

Lastly, in the Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) rates, the 1-year OIS yield declined by 2 bps to 6.62%, while the 5-year OIS yield decreased by 6 bps to 6.18%.

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