Weekly Market Movement :
During the closing remarks at the April 2024 RBI monetary policy meeting, the RBI governor reflected on the state of inflation, stating, "Two years ago, inflation was the elephant in the room, peaking at 7.8% in April 2022. Now, it seems the elephant has stepped out for a walk and appears to be returning to the forest. We would like the elephant to return to the forest and remain there on a durable basis. Referring to the above analogy, it is clear that inflation risks are far lower compared to the past 1-2 years, and the RBI is comfortable with the current strong growth data and inflation levels within the targeted range.
Globally, the US Federal Reserve is yet to be convinced that inflation is under control, and other economic data points are coming in much stronger than expected (e.g., US Non-Farm Payrolls, Manufacturing PMIs), which is diminishing the hopes for early rate cuts in the US, leading to a 20 bps rise in UST rates during the week. On the other hand, European countries are witnessing controlled inflation levels and stagnating growth rates, which could prompt the ECB to consider rate cuts by June 2024.
Market highlights as follows:
- 10 Yr Gsec benchmark yields rose by 5bps on a weekly basis.
- New 10 yr GSec 2034 auction cut-off stood at 7.10%.
- RBI held the repo rate unchanged during April monetary policy meeting.
- RBI real GDP growth and inflation projections for FY25 are at 7% and 4.5% respectively.
- RBI would use VRRR to manage near-term liquidity in the market.
- Weekly 3m & 6m T-bill auctions witnessed a fall in cut-off rate on a weekly basis.
- Domestic banking liquidity recorded a surplus of Rs. 1557 billion.
- INRBonds retail high yielding index yield rose by 6 bps.
- US non-farm payrolls jumped by 303,000 and unemployment dropped to 3.8%.
- 10 Yr UST yield traded higher at 4.40% post strong US NFP data.
- Brent crude oil prices rose by 5% during the week, surpassing the USD 90 dollar mark.
|
Market Data | |||
|
Particulars |
5/4/2024 |
29/3/2024 |
Change |
|
10 Yr Benchmark Gsec (%) |
7.10% |
7.05% |
5 bps |
|
Banking Liquidity (in Rs Billion) |
1557 |
-409 |
480.68% |
|
5 Yr OIS (%) |
6.40% |
6.35% |
5 bps |
|
1 Yr OIS (%) |
6.79% |
6.75% |
4 bps |
|
INRBonds Retail High Yield Index |
9.80% |
9.73% |
6 bps |
|
Nifty |
22513 |
22327 |
0.83% |
|
10 Yr SDL |
7.46% |
7.43% |
3 bps |
|
91 Day T-Bill (%) |
6.88% |
6.90% |
-2 bps |
|
182 Day T-Bill (%) |
7.02% |
7.04% |
-2.01 bps |
|
10 Yr US Treasury Yield (%) |
4.40% |
4.20% |
20 bps |
|
US Junk Bond Yield (%) |
7.64% |
7.44% |
20 bps |
|
Brent Crude Oil (In USD per Barrel) |
91.17 |
87 |
4.79% |
|
Primary & Secondary Corporate Bonds Data | |||
|
Top 5 Secondary Retail Trades |
Maturity |
Yield |
- |
|
Bajaj Housing Finance |
21-06-2024 |
7.30% |
|
|
HDB Financial Services |
26-04-2024 |
8.26% |
|
|
Navi Finserv |
13-06-2026 |
11.33% |
|
|
Muthoot Finance |
23-03-2026 |
8.75% |
|
|
Shriram Finance |
23-05-2024 |
10.60% |
|
|
Currency Market Data | |||
|
Particulars |
5/4/2024 |
29/3/2024 |
Change |
|
USD/INR |
83.319 |
83.342 |
-0.03% |
|
DXY |
104.29 |
104.49 |
-0.19% |
|
USD/ Brazil Real |
5.09 |
4.985 |
2.11% |
|
EUR/ USD |
1.0836 |
1.0793 |
0.40% |
|
USD/CNY |
7.2337 |
7.2213 |
0.17% |
|
USD/JPY |
151.62 |
151.38 |
0.16% |
|
USD/ Russian Ruble |
92.45 |
92.46 |
-0.01% |