10 Jun 2024

Gsec Yields Likely to Stay Range-Bound Amidst Inflation Anticipation and Liquidity Tightening

author dp
Team INRBonds
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Weekly Market Highlights:

  1. 10 year 2034 Gsec yields fell by 3 bps on weekly basis.
  2. RBI MPC keeps the policy rates unchanged contrary to ECB and BoC rate cuts
  3. India’s Q4 GDP grew by 7.8% and for FY24 growth recorded at 8.2%.
  4. As per RBI MPC, GDP growth projection for FY25 is 7.2% and gross fiscal deficit target is at 4.5%.
  5. Weekly Gsec auction cut-off for 2034 and 2053 stood at 7.02% and 7.14% respectively.
  6. Weekly T-bill auction data shows 3M and 6M yields up by 1-2 bps compared to previous week auctions.
  7. Domestic market liquidity surplus stood at Rs. 450.2 billion.
  8. RBI MPC meeting shows that liquidity is in surplus and forex reserves stood at record USD 651.5 billion.
  9. Non-farm payroll data in the US shows a stronger job addition of 272K than market expectation of 185K.
  10. UST 10 year yields are up and closed at 4.43% post strong NFP numbers.

Market Data

Particulars

7/6/2024

31/5/2024

Change

10 Yr Benchmark Gsec (%)

7.02%

6.99%

3 bps

Banking Liquidity (in Rs Billion)

450.2

-1013

100.00%

5 Yr OIS (%)

6.35%

6.45%

-645 bps

1 Yr OIS (%)

6.78%

6.85%

-685 bps

INRBonds Retail High Yield Index

9.64%

9.64%

0 bps

Nifty

23,290

22,531

3.37%

10 Yr SDL

7.41%

7.38%

3 bps

91 Day T-Bill (%)

6.86%

6.85%

1 bps

182 Day T-Bill (%)

7.02%

7.01%

1.09 bps

10 Yr US Treasury Yield (%)

4.43%

4.50%

-7 bps

US Junk Bond Yield (%)

7.62%

7.84%

-22 bps

Brent Crude Oil (In USD per Barrel)

79.44

81.37

-2.37%

Primary & Secondary Corporate Bonds Data

Primary Public Debt Issuance

Maturity

Yield

IP Frequency

8.86% 360 One Prime Ltd

18 Months

9.22%

Monthly

9.16% 360 One Prime Ltd

18 Months

9.23%

Annual

8.98% 360 One Prime Ltd

24 Months

9.36%

Monthly

9.35% 360 One Prime Ltd

24 Months

9.35%

Annual

9.16% 360 One Prime Ltd

36 Months

9.55%

Monthly

9.55% 360 One Prime Ltd

36 Months

9.55%

Annual

9.21% 360 One Prime Ltd

60 Months

9.60%

Monthly

9.6% 360 One Prime Ltd

60 Months

9.60%

Annual

9.44% 360 One Prime Ltd

120 Months

9.86%

Monthly

9.85% 360 One Prime Ltd

120 Months

9.84%

Annual

Top 5 Secondary Retail Trades

Maturity

Yield

-

7.99% HDFC BANK LIMITED

11/7/2024

7.52%

9.65% HINDUJA LEYLAND FINANCE LIMITED

29/5/2039

9.30%

7.34% POWER GRID CORPORATION OF INDIA LIMITED

15/7/2024

7.35%