16 Sept 2024

G-Secs likely to Rally as Fed Prepares for 25bps Rate Cut

author dp
Team INRBonds
Share via:LinkedIn LogoTwitter logo

 

Weekly Market Highlights:

  1. The 10 year 2034 G-sec yield fell to 6.79% over the week India August CPI came above expectations at 3.65%. This may further delay a rate cut by the RBI.
  2. India core inflation remained flat at 3.4% while IIP growth marginally rose to 4.8% for august.
  3. 3M and 6M T-bill auction data yields were at 6.65% and 6.72% respectively, up 2 bps since last week.
  4. The INR Bonds high yield Index stood at 9.755% up 13 bps fortnightly.
  5. The ECB lowered its deposit rate from 3.75% to 3.5%, marking the 2nd cut this year after June, while holding rates steady in July and pausing in August. The ECB faces the challenge of balancing weak economic growth with the goal of returning inflation to the ECB's 2% target. ECB has also cut the refinancing rate by 60 bps.
  6. The 10Y UST was down to 3.65% as markets are bracing for a FED rate cut on 18th September as US inflation hit a 43 month low at 2.5% in August 2024.
  7. Globally sovereign bond yields dipped after weak US CPI data and ECB cutting rates. FED’s outlook and the rate cut will drive the bond market in the week ahead.

Market Data

Particulars

13/9/2024

6/9/2024

Change

10 Yr Benchmark Gsec (%)

6.79%

6.85%

-6 bps

Banking Liquidity (in Rs Billion)

196.1

255.3

-23.19%

5 Yr OIS (%)

5.94%

6.05%

-11 bps

1 Yr OIS (%)

6.37%

6.47%

-9 bps

INRBonds Retail High Yield Index

9.76%

9.63%

13 bps

Nifty

25,357

24,852

2.03%

10 Yr SDL

7.17%

7.24%

-7 bps

91 Day T-Bill (%)

6.65%

6.63%

2 bps

182 Day T-Bill (%)

6.72%

6.73%

-0.62 bps

10 Yr US Treasury Yield (%)

3.65%

3.74%

-9.01 bps

US Junk Bond Yield (%)

6.96%

6.94%

2 bps

Brent Crude Oil (In USD per Barrel)

71.49

71.6

-0.15%

Primary & Secondary Corporate Bonds Data

Top 5 Secondary Retail Trades

Maturity

Yield

-

9.90% IFCI Limited

5/11/2027

10.20%

9.50% Aye Finance Private Limited

7/10/2025

11.52%

10.05% Muthoot Fincorp Limited

29/4/1930

10.40%

11.50% Earlysalary Services Private Limited

5/8/2025

11.25%

10.50% Spandana Sphoorty Financial Limited

14/4/2027

10.77%

Currency Market Data

Particulars

13/9/2024

6/9/2024

Change

USD/INR

83.88

83.976

-0.11%

DXY

101.11

101.25

-0.14%

USD/ Brazil Real

5.44

5.45

-0.18%

EUR/ USD

1.0176

1.108

-8.16%

USD/CNY

7.093

7.1097

-0.23%

USD/JPY

140.82

142.84

-1.41%

USD/ Russian Ruble

89.996

90.113

-0.13%