14 Oct 2024

G-Secs Rally Following RBI MPC's Change in Stance

author dp
Team INRBonds
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Weekly Market Highlights:

  1. The 10   year 2034 G-sec yield closed at 6.72% this week vs 6.81% last week.
  2. The RBI's shift from a "withdrawal of accommodation" to a "neutral" stance indicates that the Central Bank believes it has tightened monetary policy enough to curb inflationary pressures. However, economic growth seems to be slowing, driven by weakening domestic demand and global geopolitical uncertainties.
  3. This shift in stance could signal the RBI's initial move toward a rate-cut strategy, as evidenced by the contraction in the 5-year and 1-year OIS spreads by 7 bps and 10 bps, respectively, following the policy meeting. The MPC's decision was positively received by the markets, with the Nifty and Sensex rising by 80 bps and the 10-year G-Sec yield declining by 7 bps.
  4. 3M and 6M T-bill auction data yields were stable at 6.43% and 6.54% respectively.
  5. The INR Bonds high yield Index stood at 9.907% down 2 bps fortnightly.
  6. The 10Y UST was up 13bps to 4.10% as US CPI rose 0.2% vs estimates of 0.1% on a monthly basis. However jobless claims for the week exceeded estimates.
  7. Gold resumed its uptrend and is nearing 52 week high levels after positive US CPI data.

Market Data

Particulars

11/10/2024

5/10/2024

Change

10 Yr Benchmark Gsec (%)

6.72%

6.81%

-8 bps

Banking Liquidity (in Rs Billion)

180.2

288.36

-37.51%

5 Yr OIS (%)

6.16%

6.14%

3 bps

1 Yr OIS (%)

6.43%

6.45%

-3 bps

INRBonds Retail High Yield Index

9.91%

9.91%

0 bps

Nifty

25,023

25,015

0.03%

10 Yr SDL

7.01%

7.10%

-9 bps

91 Day T-Bill (%)

6.43%

6.47%

-4 bps

182 Day T-Bill (%)

6.54%

6.56%

-2.3 bps

10 Yr US Treasury Yield (%)

4.10%

3.97%

13 bps

US Junk Bond Yield (%)

6.95%

6.74%

21 bps

Brent Crude Oil (In USD per Barrel)

78.15

78.09

0.08%

Primary & Secondary Corporate Bonds Data

Top 5 Secondary Retail Trades

Maturity

Yield

-

9.57% IIFL Samasta Finance Limited

21/6/2027

10.47%

10.50% Spandana Sphoorty Financial Limited

14/4/2027

11.65%

9.50% Hinduja Leyland Finance Limited

29/11/2029

9.85%

11.50% Keertana Finserv Private Limited

20/2/2026

14.05%

10.30% IKF Finance Limited

30/7/2027

10.73%

Currency Market Data

Particulars

11/10/2024

5/10/2024

Change

USD/INR

84.074

84.03

0.05%

DXY

103.02

102.52

0.49%

USD/ Brazil Real

5.48

5.32

3.01%

EUR/ USD

1.0976

1.0976

0.00%

USD/CNY

7.0746

7.0176

0.81%

USD/JPY

149.31

148.71

0.40%

USD/ Russian Ruble

96.2885

95.007

1.35%

Public Issuance - UGRO Capital

Series

I

II

III

Coupon Frequency

Monthly

Monthly

Monthly

Face Value

1000

1000

1000

Tenor

18 Months

24 Months

30 Months

Coupon

10.15%

10.25%

10.4%%

Effective Yield

10.64%

10.75%

10.91%

Base Issue

Rs. 100 Cr.

Green Shoe Option

Rs. 100 Cr.

Total Issue Size

Rs. 100 Cr.

Credit Rating

India Ratings A+/Stable

Issue Open

10/10/2024

Issue Close

23/10/2024

Type of Issue

Secured Redeemable NCD

Public Issuance - Muthoot Fincorp Ltd

Series

I

II

III

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

IX

X

XI

XII

XIII

Coupon Frequency

Monthly

Annual

Cumulative

Face Value

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

Tenor

24

36

60

72

24

36

60

72

24

36

60

72

92

Coupon

9.00%

9.25%

9.45%

9.65%

9.40%

9.65%

9.90%

10.10%

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

Effective Yield

9.38%

9.65%

9.87%

10.09%

9.40%

9.65%

9.89%

10.10%

9.40%

9.65%

9.90%

10.10%

9.50%

Base Issue

Rs. 75 Cr.

Green Shoe Option

Rs. 17.5 Cr.

Total Issue Size

Rs. 25 Cr.

Credit Rating

AA-

Issue Open

11/10/2024

Issue Close

23/10/2024

Type of Issue

Secured Redeemable NCD