21 Oct 2024

Rising Inflation Likely to Delay RBI Rate Cut; RBI MPC Meeting Minutes to Drive G-Secs This Week

author dp
Team INRBonds
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Weekly Market Highlights:

  1. The 10-year 2034 G-sec yield closed at 6.77% this week vs 6.72% last week.
  2. 3M and 6M T-bill auction data yields were stable at 6.45% and 6.55% respectively.
  3. India's CPI reached a 9-month high of 5.49% as the base effect faded. Near-term inflation risks remain unfavorable for a rate cut.
  4. India’s forex reserves dropped by USD 10.7 bn to USD 690 bn after reaching record highs. India’s gold reserves also fell amid gold hitting 52w high levels of USD 2720 per ounce.
  5. The INR Bonds high yield Index stood at 9.86% down 5 bps fortnightly.
  6. The ECB has reduced its interest rates for the third time this year, cutting the key deposit rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%. Markets anticipate 3 more rate cuts by March 2025. Meanwhile, the Euro fell against the dollar as the ECB presented a bleak Eurozone outlook.
  7. China's central bank injected 14-day liquidity into the banking system for the first time in months on Monday, lowering the interest rate by 25 bps, indicating its intention to further ease monetary conditions.
  8. The 10Y UST closed 2 bps lower at 4.08% as the US budget deficit widened. FED’s Schmid speech to drive the UST next week.

Market Data

Particulars

18/10/2024

11/10/2024

Change

10 Yr Benchmark Gsec (%)

6.77%

6.72%

5 bps

Banking Liquidity (in Rs Billion)

175.2

180.2

-2.77%

5 Yr OIS (%)

6.23%

6.16%

6 bps

1 Yr OIS (%)

6.53%

6.43%

10 bps

INRBonds Retail High Yield Index

9.86%

9.91%

-5 bps

Nifty

24,854

25,023

-0.68%

10 Yr SDL

7.07%

7.01%

6 bps

91 Day T-Bill (%)

6.45%

6.43%

2 bps

182 Day T-Bill (%)

6.55%

6.54%

0.93 bps

10 Yr US Treasury Yield (%)

4.08%

4.10%

-2 bps

US Junk Bond Yield (%)

6.81%

6.95%

-14 bps

Brent Crude Oil (In USD per Barrel)

73.16

78.15

-6.39%

Primary & Secondary Corporate Bonds Data

Top 5 Secondary Retail Trades

Maturity

Yield

-

11.95% Namra Finance Limited

25/5/2026

11.90%

9.90% Incred Financial Services Limited

21/8/2026

10.45%

10.30% Indostar Capital Finance Limited

25/9/2027

10.71%

9.50% Hinduja Leyland Finance Limited

29/11/2029

9.82%

10.90% Earlysalary Services Private Limited

27/3/2026

12.00%

Currency Market Data

Particulars

18/10/2024

11/10/2024

Change

USD/INR

84.065

84.074

-0.01%

DXY

103.49

103.02

0.46%

USD/ Brazil Real

5.55

5.48

1.28%

EUR/ USD

1.0866

1.0976

-1.00%

USD/CNY

7.105

7.0746

0.43%

USD/JPY

149.52

149.31

0.14%

USD/ Russian Ruble

96.7

96.2885

0.43%

Public Issuance - Muthoot Fincorp Ltd

Series

I

II

III

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

IX

X

XI

XII

XIII

Coupon Frequency

Monthly

Annual

Cumulative

Face Value

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

Tenor

24

36

60

72

24

36

60

72

24

36

60

72

92

Coupon

9.00%

9.25%

9.45%

9.65%

9.40%

9.65%

9.90%

10.10%

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

Effective Yield

9.38%

9.65%

9.87%

10.09%

9.40%

9.65%

9.89%

10.10%

9.40%

9.65%

9.90%

10.10%

9.50%

Base Issue

Rs. 75 Cr.

Green Shoe Option

Rs. 17.5 Cr.

Total Issue Size

Rs. 25 Cr.

Credit Rating

AA-

Issue Open

11/10/2024

Issue Close

23/10/2024

Type of Issue

Secured Redeemable NCD